BERKELEY, CA — A new research paper released by the Center for Studies in Higher Education (CSHE) at the University of California, Berkeley, reveals that the common narrative of American educational stagnancy is misleading. The study, titled "Broadening Our Perspective Concerning America's Education Attainment: Growth, Progress, and Data Gaps," authored by Michael Kirst and Victor Eliot Hau Hong Chan of Stanford University, demonstrates a robust pattern of expansion across nearly every sector of the education-to-workforce pipeline.
By systematically examining eleven distinct categories of learning—from Advanced Placement (AP) in high schools to registered apprenticeships and military education—the researchers found that U.S. students, particularly those aged 15–25, are spending significantly more years in educational environments than they did decades ago.
“Our goal is to reframe the current conversation around U.S. education attainment and performance by systematically examining how different forms of postsecondary education and training have grown, evolved, and contributed to workforce development,” noted the authors. “Our research demonstrates that stagnancy or decline is not the dominant trend if postsecondary and K-12 education are combined."
Key Findings Across the Pipeline
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K-12 & College Readiness: The Advanced Placement (AP) program has transformed from a niche offering to a systemic feature of the high school experience. In 1984, roughly 200,000 students took AP exams; by 2024, that number surged to more than 3 million, with passing rates holding steady or improving despite the massive expansion. Dual enrollment (DE) has become one of the most rapidly expanding channels for early college credit in the United States. DE rose from 1.1 million in 2000 to over 2.5 million in 2023.
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Higher Education Completion: Contrary to popular belief, graduation rates at four-year institutions increased by an average of 6.4 percentage points between the 2007 and 2018 entry classes. As of 2024, 43% of the U.S. population aged 24–29 holds a bachelor’s degree or higher, compared to just 35% of those aged 55 and older.
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The Workforce & Skills Gap: Registered apprenticeships have seen a notable resurgence, growing by 73% between 2010 and 2020. The federal investment in pre and post education of military service members expanded vastly after 2002. Furthermore, non-degree credentials (NDCs)—such as licenses and certificates—now play a massive role in the economy, with 34% of American workers holding an NDC in 2025.
A Call to Action for Data Infrastructure
While the report celebrates progress, it sounds an alarm regarding "critical blind spots" in national data tracking. Sectors such as career and technical education (CTE), college transfer pathways, and on-the-job training currently lack the integrated data infrastructure needed to measure their full impact on student success and economic mobility.
“The takeaway is not that the U.S. education system is broken, but rather that it is incompletely understood,” the authors noted. The study calls for the urgent development of cross-agency systems to track participation, progression, and outcomes across all postsecondary pathways.
Read the full paper
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At the Center for Studies in Higher Education (CSHE), we are committed to publishing rigorous, relevant, and accessible research and policy work that advances understanding of higher education.The Research & Occasional Paper Series (ROPS) is CSHE’s flagship publication, which includes original research studies, reflective essays, and think pieces. With a growing repository of over 340 publications, the series has become a valuable resource for researchers, policymakers, and practitioners seeking evidence-based insights into higher education issues.
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