Why the SAT is a Poor Fit for America’s Public Universities by Saul Geiser. CSHE.2.25 (September 2025)

This report responds to recent announcements by Harvard, Yale, MIT, Stanford, and other institutions reinstating the SAT or ACT for admission. Widely publicized after aNew York Timesarticle and analysis by Harvard’s Opportunity Insights group, these announcement rest on two claims: that standardized tests outperform high school grades in predicting college success and that they may enhance diversity in admissions. Both claims falter on closer examination. The alleged superiority of test scores reflects omitted variable bias, in which key background factors such as income or race are excluded from prediction models. When these controls are introduced, high school GPA proves a stronger predictor of first- year outcomes at Ivy-Plus colleges. Moreover, ranking applicants by SAT score systematically disadvantages top students (as measured by GPA) from less privileged backgrounds, overwhelming any diversity gains from holistic review. These are precisely the students thatpublic universities seek to include. Elite private institutions emphasize academic excellence and institutional priorities in admissions, while public universities must in addition advance social mobility. For this mission, the SAT is illsuited. Rather than emulate the Ivy League, America's public universities should double down on their traditional public mission in the new post–affirmative action era of college admissions.